From climate records to the future of humanity

Washington [US], January 29: The year 2023 has seen a series of new global weather records, prompting new debates in the fight against climate change, more than 30 years since scientists warned of the 'household effect'. respect' to the US Congress.
Throughout the summer of 2023, temperature records were continuously broken everywhere in the world , from China to Europe and America. From June to October, every month is the hottest since statistics have been available. As if that wasn't "hot enough", in November, the European Union's (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Monitoring Service (C3S) said 2023 would "almost certainly" be the hottest year on earth in The past 125,000 years.
"The 2023 numbers for air temperature, sea water temperature, ocean ice and more look like something out of a disaster movie," said CNN CEO David Reay. Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, University of Edinburgh (UK).
The impact of climate change is already being seen in longer and more frequent heat waves, heavier storms and floods , more severe droughts and more intense wildfires in 2023.
It all raises an alarming question: Is humanity's relentless release of carbon emissions finally pushing the climate crisis into a new, more destructive phase? Many scientists assert that the world has not yet passed the "tipping point" of climate change, but some worry that the planet is closer to this point than ever.
The landmark hearing
On June 23, 1988, in a hearing in the US Senate, Dr. James Hansen and other scientists warned about the increasing trend of temperature on earth. He said there was "99% certainty" the trend was not a natural change but was caused by a buildup of CO2 and other emissions that humans put into the atmosphere.
Until then, the scientific community has been cautious in acknowledging the link between rising temperatures and global warming caused by air pollution. Therefore, the comments of Mr. Hansen, who was then Director of the Space Research Institute of the US Aerospace Agency (NASA), immediately attracted global attention after appearing in the newspaper.
"If Dr. Hansen and other scientists are correct, humans, through the burning of fossil fuels and other activities, have changed the global climate in ways that will affect life on earth for the foreseeable future. centuries to come", The New York Times reported on the event in its June 24, 1988 issue.
More than three decades after the hearing, no one can dispute Mr. Hansen's assessment. He himself also became one of the leading voices in the fight against climate change. In a recent study, he warned that global warming is accelerating and that humans are "in the early stages of a climate emergency".
"State of emergency"
The frequency of terms such as "climate emergency" or "climate and ecological crisis" has increased dramatically in recent years. According to statistics from the Web of Science research database, if in 2015 there were only 32 articles mentioning the term "climate emergency", that number increased to 862 in 2022.
That "emergency" was clearly illustrated in 2023: Hurricane Daniel caused the highest loss of life in Africa with an estimated death toll of 4,000 - 11,000; 93 people died related to the Maui forest fire (Hawaii) - the most serious forest fire of the century in the US; Drought in the Brazilian Amazon has sent river levels to historic lows.
At the end of October 2023, a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change concluded that the world's "carbon budget" - the amount of greenhouse gases that can still be emitted without increasing global temperatures by more than 1. 5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times - reduced by 1/3. At current emissions levels, the world has just six years left before passing that temperature increase limit.
According to a report by C3S in November 2023, the global average temperature in the period from January to October 2023 is 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times. Last October's global average temperature was 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times.
The increase in temperature is mainly due to greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere when burning fossil fuels, along with the return of the El Nino phenomenon also contributing to the increase in temperature. However, scientists note that the impact of El Nino will only truly become clear in 2024.
Debate in scientific circles
According to research published in the journal Oxford Open Climate Change in November 2023, Dr. Hansen's team concluded that a "dangerous" warming would be unleashed, causing the world's average temperature to exceed the limit of 1.5 degrees. Celsius within this decade, and exceed the limit of 2 degrees Celsius by 2050. But some scientists have expressed skepticism about the above research. Such opinions reflect a divide that has recently emerged in the climate science community over whether global warming has entered a new and even more dangerous phase.
According to climate scientist Robin Lamboll at Imperial College London (UK), Mr. Hansen's study is broad in scope "but lacks things like analytical depth or consistency in making very inconsistent claims." particular". Meanwhile, climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania (USA) said that Mr. Hansen has exaggerated the problem and has not met the evidence standards in the above study.
According to some scientists, although it certainly feels like the world has passed a scary turning point, global warming so far is completely consistent with scientific predictions over the past three decades. . But no matter what, the scientific community is clear on one thing: Humans must stop using fossil fuels.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper